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Monday, October 10, 2016

We begin!

  I always thought about maintaining a genealogy or genetic genealogy blog, aimed especially to educate the Czech and Central European genealogist. But also helping everyone fighting with this difficult topic. Additionally, I often find myself wanting to add something to the discussions and idea going around the internet, without a proper channel.

  Today, I want to start with something, every genetic genealogist should put at the front of his efforts. And that is his family tree.

  What we often hear from the testing companies, is 3rd cousin this, 4th cousin that, but the reality of our matches is different. We can visit http://isogg.org/wiki/Cousin_statistics to see, that even with conservative cousin count estimate, we are likely to have more 8th genetic cousins than 7th genetic cousins that 6th genetic cousins and so forth.


What this means for us, genetic genealogists? If we want to find common ancestors with our matches, we need to actually work on our trees! And firmly deep at that. 8th cousins are at the 7 great grandparents level, meaning we have 512 of these ancestors, which amounts to 1022 ancestors including all previous generations from parents up.

For two genetic genealogist, to be able to compare their most likely type of cousin, 8th cousin - they would both need to have 1022 correct ancestors in their trees and compare them.
This goal is probably not feasible in the Czech republic, due to typical time where records fail to be available (end of 17th century). Still I want to be able to track my progress of this goal, and blog seems like a perfect medium.

Let's do this from the perspective of my grandparents first, and then one for me. I wrote a script that pulls this analysis out of GEDCOM, it is not perfect, but being a single ancestor off here and there won't make or break this statistics.

Maternal Grandmother Anežka Kočíbová, 1935, gedmatch ID# M789839
gen#rel~DoBmatch#anc/gen#idd/gen%idd/gen#anc#idd%idd
1p190722100.00%22100.00%
2gp18731C44100.00%66100.00%
3Ggp18382C88100.00%1414100.00%
4GGgp18063C161593.75%302996.67%
53Ggp17784C323093.75%625995.16%
64Ggp05C644875.00%12610784.92%
75Ggp6C1281612.50%25412348.43%
86Ggp7C25641.56%51012724.90%
97Ggp8C51210.20%102212812.52%

Maternal Grandfather Jan Musil, 1927, gedmatch ID# M396921
gen#rel~DoBmatch#anc/gen#idd/gen%idd/gen#anc#idd%idd
1p189922100.00%22100.00%
2gp18601C44100.00%66100.00%
3Ggp18292C88100.00%1414100.00%
4GGgp17993C1616100.00%3030100.00%
53Ggp17674C3232100.00%6262100.00%
64Ggp5C643453.13%1269676.19%
75Ggp6C1283527.34%25413151.57%
86Ggp7C256238.98%51015430.20%
97Ggp8C512254.88%102217917.51%

Paternal Grandmother Irena Moravcová, 1932, gedmatch ID# M425590
gen#rel~DoBmatch#anc/gen#idd/gen%idd/gen#anc#idd%idd
1p22100.00%22100.00%
2gp1C44100.00%66100.00%
3Ggp2C88100.00%1414100.00%
4GGgp3C161168.75%302583.33%
53Ggp4C321856.25%624369.35%
64Ggp5C642742.19%1267055.56%
75Ggp6C1281511.72%2548533.46%
86Ggp7C25672.73%5109218.04%
97Ggp8C51261.17%1022989.59%

Paternal Grandfather Emil Krchák, 1930, no autosomal data
gen#rel~DoBmatch#anc/gen#idd/gen%idd/gen#anc#idd%idd
1p22100.00%22100.00%
2gp1C44100.00%66100.00%
3Ggp2C88100.00%1414100.00%
4GGgp3C161487.50%302893.33%
53Ggp4C322578.13%625385.48%
64Ggp5C642539.06%1267861.90%
75Ggp6C12832.34%2548131.89%
86Ggp7C25600.00%5108115.88%
97Ggp8C51200.00%1022817.93%

Now it is clear, there is a lot of work to be done, and it is even very visible, where I should start (my paternal grandfather).


Overall, myself, gedmatch ID# M240291 (PM240291M1, PM240291P1)
gen#rel~DoBmatch#anc/gen#idd/gen%idd/gen#anc#idd%idd
1p196022100.00%22100.00%
2gp19311C44100.00%66100.00%
3Ggp2C88100.00%1414100.00%
4GGgp3C1616100.00%3030100.00%
53Ggp4C3232100.00%6262100.00%
64Ggp5C645687.50%12611893.65%
75Ggp6C12810481.25%25422287.40%
86Ggp7C25613552.73%51035770.00%
97Ggp8C5125911.52%102241640.70%
Now having over 50% of 6xgreat grandparents is not terrible, but I am positive much more coverage is achievable.


I will try to publish the progress as it makes sense (few times a year) and we'll see how some improvements of my tree help with the genetic genealogy research :)

Thanks for reading!
Kuba


P.S. This effort, GEDCOM script and this blog were originally inspired by 2015 blog wave on this topic, including http://thegeneticgenealogist.com/2015/08/11/how-much-of-your-family-tree-do-you-know-and-why-does-that-matter.

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